In looking back over 2015,
I’m struck by the number of sleights-of-hand and misrepresentations and
downright lies foisted on the American public.
There was the Iran nuclear
deal, based the absurd notion that Iran’s barbaric behavior would suddenly
change for the better.
There was hand wringing over
drug prices, with little mention of the crushing costs for bringing new
medicines to market.
There was the barrage of
self-congratulations for Obamacare, while premiums soared and hatred for the
measure grew.
There was the strange sight
of Hillary Clinton chiding Republicans for their war on women, while the ghosts
of Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones and Gennifer Flowers danced in the background.
There was the myth that U.S.
drones and aerial bombardment would obliterate ISIS, while our reluctant
surrogates did the dirty work on the ground.
But all of that pales
compared to the climate-change summit in Paris – the meeting that was supposed
to bring global warming to heel. It was a complete bust. The claim that the
conference somehow slowed climate change was the biggest lie of 2015.
The outcome was a collective
promise to hold the rise of global temperatures to “well below” 2 degrees
Celsius over preindustrial levels by 2100. That would be enough, the experts
said, to arrest warming, stop sea level rise and even out weather extremes.
It won’t happen. Here’s why.
· People won’t comply. Despite past promises, the world
is not moving away from fossil fuels. For every additional unit of solar
consumed in 2014, the world added 325 units of hydrocarbons – coal, oil and
natural gas. Since 1984, carbon dioxide levels have increased in straight-line
fashion and show no sign of slowing.
· The Paris commitments are not enough. To get consensus
among the nearly 200 nations, the conference had to rely on self-imposed goals,
with each country or region settings its own targets. For example, the U.S. and
European Union promised big cutbacks in carbon emissions by 2030, while China
and India promised big increases. Japan, Mexico, Australia and Russia promised
to stay even. Taken together, the commitments of 167 countries responsible for
94% of global emissions would result in the temperature rising 3 degrees Celsius
by 2100. And that’s if all commitments are met.
· Nothing is legally binding. There are no penalties if
countries miss their goals. It’s the honor system on a global scale. Even the
U.S. doesn’t have to do anything. To avoid congressional scrutiny, the Obama
administration jiggled the wording to read countries “should” commit to
reducing emissions. (I “should” drink less Scotch, but I probably won’t.)
· Coal, the main polluter, won’t go away easily. China
agreed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 but is building more coal plants every
year. India needs cheap electricity from coal to lift millions out of poverty.
In the aftermath of Fukushima, Japan is building scores of new coal plants. The
Philippines is set to open 23 new coal-fired facilities by 2020.
· Throwing money at it isn’t the answer. The U.S. and EU
have pledged hundreds of billions to help poor countries fight climate change.
But many countries want even more. It’s extortion on an international scale,
but still not enough to offset the high cost of green energy. The Indian
environmental minister said, “The cost of action is trillions. $100 billion is
just a reparation.” It’s a bottomless money hole.
· Most people just don’t care. Global warming is a low
priority in the U.S. A recent poll showed climate change to be seventh on the
list of national concerns, well behind the economy, jobs, terrorism – things
that matter today, not a hundred years from now.
The Paris conference, however
well-intentioned, was little more than an international kumbaya. It produced an
agreement saying there is a problem and admitting, based on what we know today,
there is no practical solution.
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